HK Legislative Council elections September 2020
Updated: Jun 11, 2020
For background please read our blog 2019 Hong Kong District Council elections.
HK protests: stay healthy, keep unity, win LegCo!
HK is a Chinese feudal plutocracy. The wealthy are in control - it is not a democracy!
China is in breach of the Joint Declaration which guaranteed to HK people for 50 years: a high degree of autonomy, unchanged lifestyle and the rule of law with an independent judiciary. In order for the Joint Declaration to continue, HK needs a referendum which is acted upon.
Currently the only UN legitimate universal and equal suffrage elections held in Hong Kong (HK) are for District Councils. In 2019 District Council elections democratic candidates representing protesters won majority control of 17 of the 18 districts.
HK's Legislative Council (LegCo) elections includes Geographic (40 seats) and non-equal Functional Constituencies (30 seats) in which some HK people vote more than once. Protesters want the undemocratic Functional Constituencies to be dropped.
HK protesters' strategy during the Covid-19 outbreak is focused on everyone's health, keeping unity and winning the upcoming September 2020 Legislative Council elections.
HK protesters during the Covid-19 pandemic are staying home and keeping healthy by practicing social distancing which HK people learnt during another Chinese Communist Party (CCP) coronavirus outbreak; SARS in 2002-2003 which killed 299 HK people. No lessons have been learnt by CCP from SARS!
HK peoples' unity between both pro-democrats and pro-CCP supporters occurred because in February and in March 2020 the HK government led by CE Carrie Lam refused the request of HK people on health grounds to close all borders with China and refuse entry of all non-HK residents including from mainland China. The current situation is that mainland Chinese and Macau visitors to HK must be tested and enter a mandatory 14 day quarantine.
Now, in unity as a block, HK people are poised to take control control of LegCo in September 2020. LegCo holds the HK government's purse strings - the tail wags the dog!
After the LegCo election, next comes the March 2022 Chief Executive (CE) election; no CE has ever finished a second term! The current election process for the Chief Executive (CE) is even less democratic than LegCo! Carrie Lam in 2017 won the CE selection process with just 777 votes which equates to roughly 0.1% of HK's population!
Wikipedia : "In 2004, the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) had ruled out universal suffrage in the 2012 Chief Executive election, but in 2007 ruled that the 2017 Chief Executive election "may be implemented by the method of universal suffrage." On 31 August 2014, however, the NPCSC imposed the nebulous condition that "the Chief Executive shall be a person who loves the country and loves Hong Kong" and that the process of selection of two or three candidates by an undemocratic nominating committee continue." HK peoples' response was the 2014 Umbrella movement and in 2019 mass protests for 5 demands including opposition to extradition legislation.
A chart looking at which Pro-Beijing legislator would lose their LegCo seats
Source: reddit (bold format added)
For Geographical Constituencies and District Council II, which are elected via Proportional Representation, the mathematics is simple.
Based on the 60% : 40% "golden ratio" between Pro-democracy and Pro-Beijing, which has remained largely consistent since 1997, theoretically, Pro-Beijing could only win 16-18 out of these 40 seats available, provided the Pro-democracy people get their shit together and don't split votes. (Which they did in 2016, resulting in Kowloon East and NT West having more Pro-BJ legislators, despite pro-dems having more votes combined).
Electoral primaries to sort out who runs what ticket in which district are essential.
Junius Ho, Yung Hoi-yan and Holden Chow will very likely lose their seats in such a scenario, as well as Vincent Cheng and Chan Hoi-yan, who are only there because their pro-democracy predecessors got disqualified by trumped-up technicalities.
For Functional Constituencies, a simple First Past the Post vote count is used. High priority targets include:
Architectural, Surveying, Planning & Landscape
Sports, Performing Arts, Culture & Publication
Import & Export
Reuters poll shows protester support holding up
Source: RTHK 28 March 2020
Polling on behalf of the Reuters news agency suggests support for the demands of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong is holding up, even though rallies are no longer taking place because of the Covid-19 outbreak.
The data is based on two polls conducted by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute, the first in December and the second between March 17 and March 20.
Reuters said supporters of the protests outnumbered opponents by about a two-to-one ratio, with 28 percent against them in March compared to 30 percent in December; and 58 percent now supporting them compared to 59 percent in December.
Reuters also said demands for the resignation of Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam now had the support of 63 percent of respondents. That compares to 57 percent in December's poll.
The protests began last June over the government's now shelved extradition bill, that would have allowed extradition to the mainland. They later morphed into broader anti-government protests.
6 March 2020 Asia Times "Functional constituencies are key in LegCo vote"
6 April 2020 SCMP "Hong Kong’s opposition targets Legislative Council seats it has not won in over 20 years for majority bid." (N.B. South China Morning Post is owned by CCP mainland Chinese, Jack Ma, and is therefore no longer considered an "independent media source").
Activist Joshua Wong predicts that many pro-Democracy lawmakers may be disqualified by Beijing, Reddit, April 2020